Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 5 · Friday 9 October 2026 · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund · referee C. Dingert · full time
Full time: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen drew 2-2 in Bundesliga Matchday 5 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Signal Iduna Park. The goals: Daniel Svensson 80', Nico Schlotterbeck 85', Ludovit Reis 88', Niclas Füllkrug 90+2'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How the match unfolded
Borussia Dortmund struck first through Daniel Svensson in the 80th minute, set up by Fábio Silva. Nico Schlotterbeck made it 2-0 to Borussia Dortmund in the 85th minute, set up by Joey Veerman. Ludovit Reis made it 2-1 to Werder Bremen in the 88th minute, set up by Oskar Wójcik. Werder Bremen levelled at 2-2 in the 90th minute (+2) through Niclas Füllkrug, set up by Marco Grüll. Late, and enough for a draw.
Borussia Dortmund were two goals up and could not hold on: Werder Bremen came back from two down for a draw.
It was 0-0 at half-time.
The referee, C. Dingert, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Borussia Dortmund and 2 to Werder Bremen.
Borussia Dortmund: N. Kovač, 3-4-2-1 · Werder Bremen: D. Thioune, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Borussia Dortmund win the likeliest outcome (59%), and a draw, at 22%, is what happened. At 22%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 5.
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.2 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 62%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 59%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.77 for Borussia Dortmund and 2.04 for Werder Bremen.
Borussia Dortmund scored about 1.2 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Werder Bremen created the better chances, 2.04 xG to 0.77, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Borussia Dortmund to create more, and Werder Bremen did.
Borussia Dortmund had 10 shots on target, Werder Bremen 4.
Werder Bremen's goalkeeper made 8 saves.
Borussia Dortmund had 72% of the ball.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Borussia Dortmund came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 a match, with 1.74 expected goals for and 0.92 against, and had won 67% of their matches.
Werder Bremen came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.40 expected goals for and 1.68 against, and had won 33% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: the match in numbers
| Borussia Dortmund | Match statistics | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| 72% | Ball possession | 28% |
| 0.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.04 |
| 21 | Total shots | 11 |
| 10 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 4 | Big chances | 2 |
| 749 | Total passes | 295 |
| 90% | Pass accuracy | 73% |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 14 | Tackles | 20 |
| 2 | Saves | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Karl Hein (Werder Bremen), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.
Borussia Dortmund
- Nico Schlotterbeck 7.8 1 goal
- Waldemar Anton 7.6
- Marcel Sabitzer 7.4
- Ethan Chidiebere Nwaneri 7.3
- Felix Nmecha 7.2
Werder Bremen
- Karl Hein 8.5
- Marco Grüll 7.6 1 assist
- Ludovit Reis 7.5 1 goal
- Oskar Wójcik 7.1 1 assist
- Niclas Füllkrug 7.1 1 goal
The lowest-rated starter was Eren Dinkçi at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Borussia Dortmund: Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund Tuesday 20 October 2026 · Champions League
- Werder Bremen: FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
What was the score in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen (half-time 0-0), Bundesliga, Friday 9 October 2026.
Who scored in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Daniel Svensson 80', Nico Schlotterbeck 85', Ludovit Reis 88', Niclas Füllkrug 90+2'.
Did Moneyball predict Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Borussia Dortmund win the likeliest outcome (59%), and a draw, at 22%, is what happened. At 22%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 5.
Who was man of the match in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Karl Hein, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
C. Dingert.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.