Botafogo 1–0 Atletico Mineiro: Result, Report and Stats
Brasileirao · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Botafogo 1 – 0 Atletico Mineiro
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave Botafogo win 45%. The result went the way the consensus leaned.
- 1 goal in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
Botafogo welcome Atletico Mineiro to Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirao action on Wednesday 4 November 2026.
Botafogo have played 34 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 17 matches, with a 64% win rate. Atletico Mineiro have played 34 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 17 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Botafogo are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 28% and Atletico Mineiro at 28%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 51%.
Botafogo: form and key numbers
In style Botafogo cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.22 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.6).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (83% at home).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Atletico Mineiro: form and key numbers
In style Atletico Mineiro play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro: season averages side by side
| Botafogo | Per match | Atletico Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.22 | xG conceded | 1.35 |
| 1.35 | Goals | 1.29 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 1.5 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 52.5 | Pressure share % | 50.7 |
| 15.1 | Tackles | 13.0 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 34 and 34 measured matches.
Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Botafogo have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Botafogo 6, Atletico Mineiro 2 - 1.3 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Botafogo 1-0 Atletico Mineiro (November 5th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Botafogo won 3, drew 2 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | Botafogo | 1 – 0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 10 May 2026 | Atletico Mineiro | 1 – 1 | Botafogo |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Botafogo | 1 – 0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Atletico Mineiro | 1 – 0 | Botafogo |
| 21 Nov 2024 | Atletico Mineiro | 0 – 0 | Botafogo |
| 7 Jul 2024 | Botafogo | 3 – 0 | Atletico Mineiro |
Players to watch
Botafogo
- Kadir Barría CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 63 · High shot volume, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
- Raul GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
Atletico Mineiro
- Fred CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Léo Duarte CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 57 · Blocks shots, Disciplined (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tomás Cuello
Tomás Cuello, 26 · Atlético Mineiro · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 55
Tomás Cuello, 26, plays as a winger for Atlético Mineiro in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 55
- RW · Winger Natural, 55
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.43 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.25 / 90 | 65% |
| Fouls won | 1.88 / 90 | 62% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.92 / 90 | 58% |
| Shots | 2.74 / 90 | 57% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- What Tomás Cuello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tomás Cuello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro prediction
Atletico Mineiro should have more of the ball; Botafogo work the ball wide and cross; Atletico Mineiro go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.35 for Botafogo and 1.23 for Atletico Mineiro - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 53%. Botafogo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Botafogo 2-1 Atletico Mineiro
Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro: what the numbers say
- 1. Botafogo unbeaten (win or draw) 72% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 52% by the model, 2.59 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 13.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro: questions and answers
When is Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro?
Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, in Brasileirao.
Where is Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro played?
At Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Botafogo's home ground.
Who will win Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro?
Botafogo are the favourites: Botafogo 45%, draw 28%, Atletico Mineiro 28%. Our prediction is Botafogo 2-1 Atletico Mineiro.
Who is the player to watch in Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro?
Tomás Cuello of Atlético Mineiro: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 55 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Atletico Mineiro?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.