Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Bournemouth AFC welcome AC Milan to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026.
Bournemouth AFC have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. AC Milan have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Bournemouth AFC 42%, the draw 27%, AC Milan 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bournemouth AFC -0.25 at 1.98, AC Milan at 1.90. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.96, under 1.90, which gives over 49%.
Bournemouth AFC: form and key numbers
In style Bournemouth AFC play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 60.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan: season averages side by side
| Bournemouth AFC | Per match | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.20 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 1.17 | Goals | 1.83 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 12.5 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 2.3 | Big chances missed | 2.7 |
| 54.3 | Pressure share % | 64.2 |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 15.5 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Players to watch
Bournemouth AFC
- Adrien Truffert LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 73 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- James Hill CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 7% of his position)
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
- Pervis Estupiñán LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Samuel Chukwueze
Samuel Chukwueze, 27 · AC Milan · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 60
Samuel Chukwueze, 27, plays as a winger for AC Milan in Serie A. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 60
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 56
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.96 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.40 / 90 | 94% |
| Dispossessed | 0.57 / 90 | 87% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.34 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 2.10 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Press-resistant.
- What Samuel Chukwueze is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Samuel Chukwueze's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan prediction
AC Milan should have more of the ball, with Bournemouth AFC likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Bournemouth AFC are a threat in the air and from set pieces; AC Milan work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.21 for Bournemouth AFC and 1.61 for AC Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Bournemouth AFC 1-1 AC Milan
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 42%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.83 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan: questions and answers
When is Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan?
Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan is on Thursday 22 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan played?
At Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Bournemouth AFC's home ground.
Who will win Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan?
It is close: Bournemouth AFC 42%, draw 27%, AC Milan 31%. Our prediction is Bournemouth AFC 1-1 AC Milan.
Who is the player to watch in Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan?
Samuel Chukwueze of AC Milan: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth AFC vs AC Milan?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.