Brest vs Nice Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 8
Ligue 1 · Friday 23 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest · updated 2026-10-17
Brest welcome Nice to Stade Francis-Le Ble in Brest in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 action on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Brest have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Nice have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Brest are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 24% and Nice at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brest 1.87, Nice 0.98.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.21 a match created, 1.18 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 19.2 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Nice: form and key numbers
In style Nice keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Brest vs Nice: season averages side by side
| Brest | Per match this season | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 2.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| 1.18 | xG conceded | 1.36 |
| 19.2 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 6.3 | On target | 3.5 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.93 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Brest
- Hugo Magnetti CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 67 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 2% of his position)
- Raphaël Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
Nice
- Xavier Mandza DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 59 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 9% of his position)
- Jonathan Clauss RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko, 24 · Brest · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 75
Bradley Locko, 24, plays as a full-back for Brest in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and interceptions. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 75
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.00 / 90 | 93% |
| Interceptions | 1.84 / 90 | 90% |
| Duels won | 6.52 / 90 | 87% |
| Dribbled past | 0.33 / 90 | 86% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.00 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Reads the game, Duel winner.
- What Bradley Locko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bradley Locko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Brest vs Nice prediction
Nice should have more of the ball, with Brest likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Nice press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.87 for Brest and 0.98 for Nice - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 53%. Brest have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Brest 1-0 Nice
Brest vs Nice betting tips
- Tip 1: Brest to win 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.85 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Auxerre vs Le Mans Sunday 25 October 2026
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Brest vs Nice: questions and answers
When is Brest vs Nice?
Brest vs Nice is on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8.
Where is Brest vs Nice played?
At Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest, Brest's home ground.
Who will win Brest vs Nice?
Brest are the favourites: Brest 58%, draw 24%, Nice 19%. Our prediction is Brest 1-0 Nice.
Who is the player to watch in Brest vs Nice?
Bradley Locko of Brest: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Brest vs Nice?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.