Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League C · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Bulgaria host Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League C on Saturday 26 September 2026. The prices see little between them: Bulgaria 39%, the draw 31%, Luxembourg 30% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (14.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bulgaria -0.5 at 2.12, Luxembourg at 1.55. The main goals line is 2: over 1.69, under 1.95, which gives over 54%.
Form in numbers
- Luxembourg create more: 0.78 expected goals a match against 0.44 for Bulgaria.
- Luxembourg give away less, 1.89 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Bulgaria 10.9 (– on target), Luxembourg 10.2 (– on target).
| Bulgaria | Per match | Luxembourg |
|---|---|---|
| 0.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.78 |
| 2.53 | xG conceded | 1.89 |
| 1.28 | Goals | 0.23 |
| 10.9 | Shots | 10.2 |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 12.2 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 12.7 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 24 and 16 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Bulgaria vs Luxembourg in the Match Centre Follow it live
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.