Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Sardegna Arena, Cagliari · updated 2026-10-17
Cagliari welcome Bologna to Sardegna Arena in Cagliari in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Cagliari have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate. Bologna have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Cagliari 36%, the draw 32%, Bologna 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Cagliari 1.06, Bologna 0.99.
- Over 2.5 goals: 34% · both teams to score: 42%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Cagliari: form and key numbers
In style Cagliari are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.88 a match created, 1.78 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 38.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Bologna: form and key numbers
In style Bologna cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.42 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Cagliari vs Bologna: season averages side by side
| Cagliari | Per match this season | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 0.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.42 |
| 1.78 | xG conceded | 0.96 |
| 9.7 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 3.8 | On target | 3.5 |
| 38.7 | Possession % | 50.7 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 81 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 8% of his position)
- Juan Rodríguez CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 9% of his position)
Bologna
- Eivind Helland CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Hard to dribble past (top 12% of his position)
- Lewis Ferguson CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda, 26 · Bologna · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 61
Juan Miranda, 26, plays as a wing-back for Bologna in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and tackles. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 67
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 63
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.05 / 90 | 84% |
| Tackles | 2.73 / 90 | 81% |
| Interceptions | 1.37 / 90 | 76% |
| Key passes | 2.05 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.26 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Ball-winner.
- What Juan Miranda is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Juan Miranda's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Cagliari vs Bologna prediction
Bologna should have more of the ball, with Cagliari likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Bologna work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals - 1.06 for Cagliari and 0.99 for Bologna - with over 2.5 goals at 34% and both teams scoring at 42%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Cagliari 1-1 Bologna
Cagliari vs Bologna betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 36%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 2.05 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Cagliari vs Bologna: questions and answers
When is Cagliari vs Bologna?
Cagliari vs Bologna is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Cagliari vs Bologna played?
At Sardegna Arena, Cagliari, Cagliari's home ground.
Who will win Cagliari vs Bologna?
It is close: Cagliari 36%, draw 32%, Bologna 32%. Our prediction is Cagliari 1-1 Bologna.
Who is the player to watch in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Juan Miranda of Bologna: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 34%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.