Cagliari vs Frosinone Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 11
Serie A · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Sardegna Arena, Cagliari · updated 2026-10-24
Cagliari welcome Frosinone to Sardegna Arena in Cagliari in Serie A Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Cagliari have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate. Frosinone have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Cagliari 36%, the draw 27%, Frosinone 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Cagliari 1.39, Frosinone 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Cagliari: form and key numbers
In style Cagliari are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.05 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 41.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Frosinone: form and key numbers
In style Frosinone are happy without the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 2.15 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 17.4 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 42.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Cagliari vs Frosinone: season averages side by side
| Cagliari | Per match this season | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.05 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 10.6 | Shots | 17.4 |
| 4.0 | On target | 5.6 |
| 41.0 | Possession % | 42.6 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 29% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Players to watch
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 79 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 11% of his position)
- Yerry Mina CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 57 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 8% of his position)
Frosinone
- Lorenzo Palmisani GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 11% of his position)
- Antonio Raimondo CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 63 · Clinical finisher, Gets into scoring positions (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23 · Frosinone · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 66
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23, plays as a winger for Frosinone in Serie A. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and shots. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 66
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- SS · Second striker Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 3.00 / 90 | 93% |
| Shots | 3.29 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.25 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.29 / 90 | 74% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, High shot volume, Chance creator.
- What Giorgi Kvernadze is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Giorgi Kvernadze's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Cagliari vs Frosinone prediction
Frosinone should have more of the ball; Frosinone work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.39 for Cagliari and 1.41 for Frosinone - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Cagliari 1-1 Frosinone
Cagliari vs Frosinone betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.80 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lecce vs Juventus Sunday 25 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Parma vs Udinese Wednesday 28 October 2026
Cagliari vs Frosinone: questions and answers
When is Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Cagliari vs Frosinone is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 11.
Where is Cagliari vs Frosinone played?
At Sardegna Arena, Cagliari, Cagliari's home ground.
Who will win Cagliari vs Frosinone?
It is close: Cagliari 36%, draw 27%, Frosinone 37%. Our prediction is Cagliari 1-1 Frosinone.
Who is the player to watch in Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Giorgi Kvernadze of Frosinone: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.