Cagliari 1-1 Juventus: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How the match unfolded

Daniel Maldini put Cagliari ahead in the 20th minute, set up by Paul Mendy. Juventus levelled at 1-1 in the 81st minute through Randal Kolo Muani, set up by Kerim Alajbegovic.

It was 1-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

Fabio Pisacane of Cagliari was sent off in the 90th minute (+5). Fabio Pisacane of Cagliari was sent off in the 90th minute (+5). L. Spalletti of Juventus was sent off in the 90th minute (+5). Luciano Spalletti of Juventus was sent off in the 90th minute (+5). The referee, M. Marcenaro, showed 3 yellow cards: 2 to Cagliari and 1 to Juventus.

Cagliari: F. Pisacane, 4-3-2-1 · Juventus: L. Spalletti, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The pre-match estimate had 1-1 as the single most likely score (14%). That is the score it ended.

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.1 expected, 2 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 35%; with 2 goals the under came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 43%; both did, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.03 for Cagliari and 0.54 for Juventus.

Cagliari scored about 1.0 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Cagliari created the better chances, 2.03 xG to 0.54, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Juventus to create more, and Cagliari did.

Cagliari had 2 shots on target, Juventus 10.

Cagliari's goalkeeper made 9 saves.

Juventus had 72% of the ball.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Cagliari came into it with 6 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 a match, with 0.88 expected goals for and 1.78 against, and had won 67% of their matches.

Juventus came into it with 6 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.61 expected goals for and 0.59 against, and had won 50% of their matches.

Cagliari vs Juventus: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Elia Caprile (Cagliari), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Cagliari

• Elia Caprile 8.5
• Daniel Maldini 7.3 1 goal
• Michel Adopo 7.1
• Paul Mendy 7.1 1 assist
• Harry Winks 6.9

Juventus

• Douglas Luiz 7.7
• Kerim Alajbegovic 7.7 1 assist
• Pape Matar Sarr 7.6
• Pierre Kalulu 7.6
• Randal Kolo Muani 7.3 1 goal

The lowest-rated starter was Guglielmo Vicario at 6.4. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Cagliari: Monza vs Cagliari Monday 19 October 2026 · Serie A
• Juventus: Juventus vs Lazio Sunday 18 October 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Cagliari vs Juventus

What was the score in Cagliari vs Juventus?

Cagliari 1-1 Juventus (half-time 1-0), Serie A, Sunday 11 October 2026.

Who scored in Cagliari vs Juventus?

Daniel Maldini 20', Randal Kolo Muani 81'.

Did Moneyball predict Cagliari vs Juventus correctly?

The pre-match estimate had 1-1 as the single most likely score (14%). That is the score it ended.

Who was man of the match in Cagliari vs Juventus?

Elia Caprile, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Cagliari vs Juventus?

M. Marcenaro.