Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Celje welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Stadion Z'dežele in Celje in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026.
Celje have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Red Bull Salzburg have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Red Bull Salzburg are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 26% and Celje at 25%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Celje +0.5 at 2.07, Red Bull Salzburg at 1.81. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.89, under 1.97, which gives over 51%.
Celje: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.66 a match created (goals minus xG: +6.0).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.50.
Red Bull Salzburg: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.90 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 57.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 17% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg: season averages side by side
| Celje | Per match | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| 0.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 1.67 | Goals | 1.50 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 0.7 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 5.0 | Tackles | 15.0 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.25 for Celje and 1.62 for Red Bull Salzburg - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 58%. Red Bull Salzburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Celje 1-2 Red Bull Salzburg
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg betting tips
- Tip 1: Red Bull Salzburg win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.87 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg: questions and answers
When is Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg is on Thursday 22 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg played?
At Stadion Z'dežele, Celje, Celje's home ground.
Who will win Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg are the favourites: Celje 25%, draw 26%, Red Bull Salzburg 49%. Our prediction is Celje 1-2 Red Bull Salzburg.
How many goals will there be in Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.