Celtic vs Beşiktaş Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Celtic Park, Glasgow · updated 2026-10-22
Celtic welcome Beşiktaş to Celtic Park in Glasgow in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Celtic have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. Beşiktaş have played 8 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 88% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Beşiktaş are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 23% and Celtic at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celtic 0.86, Beşiktaş 1.94.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Celtic: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.86 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 0.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Beşiktaş: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.63 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 18.0 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 60.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Celtic vs Beşiktaş: season averages side by side
| Celtic | Per match this season | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 8 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 0.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.63 |
| 12.5 | Shots | 18.0 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.9 |
| 58.0 | Possession % | 60.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 63% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 0.5 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Celtic vs Beşiktaş prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 0.86 for Celtic and 1.94 for Beşiktaş - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 50%. Beşiktaş have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Celtic 0-2 Beşiktaş
Celtic vs Beşiktaş betting tips
- Tip 1: Beşiktaş to win 62% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.80 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Celtic vs Beşiktaş: questions and answers
When is Celtic vs Beşiktaş?
Celtic vs Beşiktaş is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Celtic vs Beşiktaş played?
At Celtic Park, Glasgow, Celtic's home ground.
Who will win Celtic vs Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş are the favourites: Celtic 15%, draw 23%, Beşiktaş 62%. Our prediction is Celtic 0-2 Beşiktaş.
How many goals will there be in Celtic vs Beşiktaş?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.