Celtic vs Celta Vigo Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Celtic welcome Celta Vigo to Celtic Park in Glasgow in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026.
Celtic have played 2 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. Celta Vigo have played 8 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 13% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Celtic 32%, the draw 28%, Celta Vigo 39%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Celtic +0.25 at 1.84, Celta Vigo at 2.04. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.83, under 2.04, which gives over 53%.
Celtic: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.86 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 0.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Celta Vigo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.91 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 9.9 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Celtic vs Celta Vigo: season averages side by side
| Celtic | Per match | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.91 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.20 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 12.5 | Shots | 9.9 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| – | Pressure share % | 49.3 |
| 16.0 | Tackles | 14.4 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 0.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 2 and 8 measured matches.
Celtic vs Celta Vigo: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Celtic have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Celtic 2, Celta Vigo 2 - 2.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Celta Vigo 2-1 Celtic (December 11th 2002).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Celtic won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec 2002 | Celta Vigo | 2 – 1 | Celtic |
| 27 Nov 2002 | Celtic | 1 – 0 | Celta Vigo |
Players to watch
Celta Vigo
- Ionuț Radu GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
- Marcos Alonso CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 53 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Javi Rueda
Javi Rueda, 24 · Celta de Vigo · RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 59
Javi Rueda, 24, plays as a full-back for Celta de Vigo in La Liga. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and key passes. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 59
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 0.97 / 90 | 87% |
| Key passes | 1.16 / 90 | 86% |
| Interceptions | 1.55 / 90 | 81% |
| Dribbled past | 0.39 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.13 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Chance creator, Reads the game.
- What Javi Rueda is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Javi Rueda's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Celtic vs Celta Vigo prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.23 for Celtic and 1.27 for Celta Vigo - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Celtic 1-1 Celta Vigo
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Celtic vs Celta Vigo betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.50 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (46%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Celtic vs Celta Vigo in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Celtic vs Celta Vigo: questions and answers
When is Celtic vs Celta Vigo?
Celtic vs Celta Vigo is on Thursday 22 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Celtic vs Celta Vigo played?
At Celtic Park, Glasgow, Celtic's home ground.
Who will win Celtic vs Celta Vigo?
It is close: Celtic 32%, draw 28%, Celta Vigo 39%. Our prediction is Celtic 1-1 Celta Vigo.
Who is the player to watch in Celtic vs Celta Vigo?
Javi Rueda of Celta de Vigo: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Celtic vs Celta Vigo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.