Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 8
Premier League · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London · updated 2026-10-17
Chelsea welcome Tottenham Hotspur to Stamford Bridge in London in Premier League Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Chelsea have played 7 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 3.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Tottenham Hotspur have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Chelsea are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 23% and Tottenham Hotspur at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chelsea 1.98, Tottenham Hotspur 1.10.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Chelsea: form and key numbers
In style Chelsea are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.8).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 48.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Tottenham Hotspur: form and key numbers
In style Tottenham Hotspur keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.15 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.9).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 58.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: season averages side by side
| Chelsea | Per match this season | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.4 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.46 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.15 |
| 1.60 | xG conceded | 1.52 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 5.6 | On target | 3.7 |
| 48.6 | Possession % | 58.8 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 5.9 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.93 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Chelsea
- João Pedro CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 78 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Wesley Fofana CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Tottenham Hotspur
- Jan Paul van Hecke CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Ball circulator, Blocks shots (top 5% of his position)
- Andrew Robertson LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Savinho
Savinho, 22 · Tottenham Hotspur · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 80
Savinho, 22, plays as a winger for Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 80
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 76
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 4.89 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 95% |
| Big chances created | 0.82 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 2.99 / 90 | 91% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.63 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Savinho is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction
Tottenham Hotspur should have more of the ball, with Chelsea likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Chelsea are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Tottenham Hotspur like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.98 for Chelsea and 1.10 for Tottenham Hotspur - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 58%. Chelsea have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur betting tips
- Tip 1: Chelsea to win 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.08 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Friday 23 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Saturday 24 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Fulham Saturday 24 October 2026
- Arsenal vs Everton Saturday 24 October 2026
- Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth Sunday 25 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 25 October 2026
- Hull City vs Brentford Sunday 25 October 2026
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United Sunday 25 October 2026
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: questions and answers
When is Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 8.
Where is Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur played?
At Stamford Bridge, London, Chelsea's home ground.
Who will win Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Chelsea are the favourites: Chelsea 57%, draw 23%, Tottenham Hotspur 20%. Our prediction is Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur.
Who is the player to watch in Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Savinho of Tottenham Hotspur: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 80 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.