Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction and Betting Tips
Premier League · Sunday 25 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Chelsea welcome Tottenham Hotspur to Stamford Bridge in London in Premier League action on Sunday 25 October 2026.
Chelsea have played 7 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 3.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Tottenham Hotspur have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Chelsea are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 24% and Tottenham Hotspur at 24%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Chelsea -0.75 at 2.02, Tottenham Hotspur at 1.89. The main goals line is 3: over 1.90, under 1.98, which gives over 51%.
Chelsea: form and key numbers
In style Chelsea are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.8).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 48.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Tottenham Hotspur: form and key numbers
In style Tottenham Hotspur keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.15 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.9).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 58.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: season averages side by side
| Chelsea | Per match | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.15 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | 1.52 |
| 2.43 | Goals | 0.50 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 1.1 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 49.4 | Pressure share % | 56.5 |
| 15.6 | Tackles | 18.2 |
| 9.3 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 6 measured matches.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Chelsea have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Chelsea 8, Tottenham Hotspur 4 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur (May 19th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Chelsea won 4, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2026 | Chelsea | 2 – 1 | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0 – 1 | Chelsea |
| 3 Apr 2025 | Chelsea | 1 – 0 | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 – 4 | Chelsea |
Players to watch
Chelsea
- João Pedro CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 78 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Wesley Fofana CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Tottenham Hotspur
- Rodrigo Bentancur DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 61 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Jan Paul van Hecke CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Ball circulator, Blocks shots (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Savinho
Savinho, 22 · Tottenham Hotspur · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 80
Savinho, 22, plays as a winger for Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 80
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 76
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 4.89 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 96% |
| Big chances created | 0.82 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 2.99 / 90 | 92% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.63 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Savinho is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction
Tottenham Hotspur should have more of the ball, with Chelsea likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Chelsea are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Tottenham Hotspur like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.99 for Chelsea and 1.06 for Tottenham Hotspur - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 57%. Chelsea have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur betting tips
- Tip 1: Chelsea win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.06 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: questions and answers
When is Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur is on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Premier League.
Where is Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur played?
At Stamford Bridge, London, Chelsea's home ground.
Who will win Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Chelsea are the favourites: Chelsea 52%, draw 24%, Tottenham Hotspur 24%. Our prediction is Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur.
Who is the player to watch in Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Savinho of Tottenham Hotspur: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 80 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.