Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle United: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Premier League Matchday 6 · Monday 12 October 2026 · The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry · referee J. Brooks · full time
Full time: Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle United
Coventry City won 4-1 at home to Newcastle United in Premier League Matchday 6 on Monday 12 October 2026. The goals: Jack Rudoni 6', Sidiki Chérif 48', Sven Botman 70', Ellis Simms 81', Stephen Mfuni 86'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Coventry City won it
Coventry City struck first through Jack Rudoni from the penalty spot in the 6th minute. Sidiki Chérif made it 2-0 to Coventry City in the 48th minute. Sven Botman made it 2-1 to Newcastle United in the 70th minute, set up by Nico González. Ellis Simms made it 3-1 to Coventry City in the 81st minute, set up by Brandon Thomas-Asante. Stephen Mfuni made it 4-1 to Coventry City in the 86th minute, set up by Jay Dasilva.
It was 1-0 at half-time.
The referee, J. Brooks, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to Coventry City and 1 to Newcastle United.
Coventry City: F. Lampard, 4-2-3-1 · Newcastle United: M. Jaissle, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Newcastle United win the likeliest outcome (44%), and a Coventry City win, at 29%, is what happened.
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.7 goals and there were 5.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 51%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 55%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.27 for Coventry City and 1.69 for Newcastle United.
Coventry City scored about 1.7 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Newcastle United to create more, and Coventry City did.
Coventry City had 6 shots on target, Newcastle United 6.
Newcastle United had 67% of the ball, but Coventry City took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Coventry City came into it with 6 Premier League matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 0.98 expected goals for and 1.79 against, and had won 33% of their matches.
Newcastle United came into it with 6 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.2 a match, with 1.24 expected goals for and 1.94 against, and had won 33% of their matches.
Coventry City vs Newcastle United: the match in numbers
| Coventry City | Match statistics | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 33% | Ball possession | 67% |
| 2.27 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.69 |
| 9 | Total shots | 19 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 2 | Big chances | 3 |
| 264 | Total passes | 548 |
| 70% | Pass accuracy | 86% |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 3 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 5 |
| 13 | Tackles | 14 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Bobby Thomas (Coventry City), rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.
Coventry City
- Bobby Thomas 7.8
- Stephen Mfuni 7.6 1 goal
- Ellis Simms 7.3 1 goal
- Sidiki Chérif 7.2 1 goal
- Brandon Thomas-Asante 7.2 1 assist
Newcastle United
- Nico González 7.8 1 assist
- Harvey Barnes 7.0
- Sven Botman 7.0 1 goal
- Bazoumana Touré 6.9
- Lewis Hall 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Lukas Hornicek at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Coventry City: Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City Monday 19 October 2026 · Premier League
- Newcastle United: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Saturday 17 October 2026 · Premier League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Coventry City vs Newcastle United
What was the score in Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Coventry City 4-1 Newcastle United (half-time 1-0), Premier League, Monday 12 October 2026.
Who scored in Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Jack Rudoni 6', Sidiki Chérif 48', Sven Botman 70', Ellis Simms 81', Stephen Mfuni 86'.
Did Moneyball predict Coventry City vs Newcastle United correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Newcastle United win the likeliest outcome (44%), and a Coventry City win, at 29%, is what happened.
Who was man of the match in Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
Bobby Thomas, rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
J. Brooks.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.