Cruzeiro MG 3–2 Bahia: Result, Report and Stats
Brasileirao · Thursday 5 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Cruzeiro MG 3 – 2 Bahia
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave Cruzeiro MG win 52%. The result went the way the consensus leaned.
- 5 goals in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
Cruzeiro MG welcome Bahia to Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte in Brasileirao action on Thursday 5 November 2026.
Cruzeiro MG have played 34 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 56% win rate. Bahia have played 34 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Cruzeiro MG are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 25% and Bahia at 24%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3 goals: 51%.
Cruzeiro MG: form and key numbers
In style Cruzeiro MG keep the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 54.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Bahia: form and key numbers
In style Bahia keep the ball, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.67 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (44% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia: season averages side by side
| Cruzeiro MG | Per match | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.67 |
| 1.62 | Goals | 1.47 |
| 15.2 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 50.0 | Pressure share % | 48.2 |
| 14.8 | Tackles | 15.6 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 13.9 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 34 and 34 measured matches.
Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Cruzeiro MG have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Cruzeiro MG 12, Bahia 9 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Cruzeiro MG 3-2 Bahia (November 6th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Cruzeiro MG won 4, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | Cruzeiro MG | 3 – 2 | Bahia |
| 10 May 2026 | Bahia | 1 – 2 | Cruzeiro MG |
| 15 Sep 2025 | Bahia | 1 – 2 | Cruzeiro MG |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Cruzeiro MG | 3 – 0 | Bahia |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Cruzeiro MG | 1 – 1 | Bahia |
| 23 Jun 2024 | Bahia | 4 – 1 | Cruzeiro MG |
Players to watch
Cruzeiro MG
- Kaiki LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Dribbler, Hard to dribble past (top 9% of his position)
- Gabriel Rojas LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Creator (top 19% of his position)
Bahia
- Ronaldo GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 73 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 11% of his position)
- Léo Vieira GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Secure passer, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira, 30 · Cruzeiro · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 60
Matheus Pereira, 30, plays as an attacking midfielder for Cruzeiro in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in fouls won and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 60
- RW · Winger Competent, 36
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.64 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 3.43 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected goals | 0.34 / 90 | 68% |
| Shots | 2.93 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Matheus Pereira is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Matheus Pereira's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia prediction
Cruzeiro MG should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.87 for Cruzeiro MG and 1.52 for Bahia - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 67%. Cruzeiro MG have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Cruzeiro MG 2-1 Bahia
Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia: what the numbers say
- 1. Cruzeiro MG unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 66% by the model, 3.39 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia: questions and answers
When is Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia?
Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia is on Thursday 5 November 2026, in Brasileirao.
Where is Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia played?
At Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Cruzeiro MG's home ground.
Who will win Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia?
Cruzeiro MG are the favourites: Cruzeiro MG 52%, draw 25%, Bahia 24%. Our prediction is Cruzeiro MG 2-1 Bahia.
Who is the player to watch in Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia?
Matheus Pereira of Cruzeiro: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro MG vs Bahia?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.