Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Selhurst Park, London · updated 2026-10-22
Crystal Palace welcome TSG Hoffenheim to Selhurst Park in London in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Crystal Palace have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. TSG Hoffenheim have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, TSG Hoffenheim are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 21% and Crystal Palace at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.81, TSG Hoffenheim 2.31.
- Over 2.5 goals: 78% · both teams to score: 76%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Crystal Palace: form and key numbers
In style Crystal Palace are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.17 a match created, 2.32 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 10.1 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.83 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: 0.0).
- Shots: 17.8 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim: season averages side by side
| Crystal Palace | Per match this season | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.17 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.83 |
| 2.32 | xG conceded | 1.49 |
| 10.1 | Shots | 17.8 |
| 3.7 | On target | 5.3 |
| 43.3 | Possession % | 57.3 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 57% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.1 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.71 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Players to watch
Crystal Palace
- Chris Richards CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Blocks shots, Hard to dribble past (top 6% of his position)
- Dean Henderson GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 7% of his position)
TSG Hoffenheim
- Ozan Kabak CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Adam Hlozek CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Vladimír Coufal
Vladimír Coufal, 34 · TSG Hoffenheim · RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 66
Vladimír Coufal, 34, plays as a wing-back for TSG Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 68
- RWB · Wing-back Natural, 66
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.08 / 90 | 92% |
| Key passes | 2.43 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 87% |
| Interceptions | 1.56 / 90 | 82% |
| Dribbled past | 0.35 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Vladimír Coufal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Vladimír Coufal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction
TSG Hoffenheim should have more of the ball, with Crystal Palace likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; TSG Hoffenheim are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.1 goals - 1.81 for Crystal Palace and 2.31 for TSG Hoffenheim - with over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams scoring at 76%. TSG Hoffenheim have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 TSG Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim betting tips
- Tip 1: TSG Hoffenheim win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 78% by the model, 4.12 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 76% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim: questions and answers
When is Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim played?
At Selhurst Park, London, Crystal Palace's home ground.
Who will win Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim?
TSG Hoffenheim are the favourites: Crystal Palace 30%, draw 21%, TSG Hoffenheim 49%. Our prediction is Crystal Palace 1-2 TSG Hoffenheim.
Who is the player to watch in Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Vladimír Coufal of TSG Hoffenheim: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 78%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.