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CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco

Monaco won 2-1 away at CSKA Sofia in Europa Conference League Matchday 1 on Thursday 15 October 2026. The goals: Paris Brunner 3', Ansu Fati 43', Joël Zwarts 76'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.

How Monaco won it

Monaco struck first through Paris Brunner in the 3rd minute, set up by Stanis Idumbo. Ansu Fati made it 0-2 to Monaco in the 43rd minute, set up by Paris Brunner. Joël Zwarts made it 1-2 to CSKA Sofia in the 76th minute, set up by Stefano Sensi.

It was 0-2 at half-time.

The referee, J. Ferreira Gonçalves, showed 4 yellow cards: 3 to CSKA Sofia and 1 to Monaco.

CSKA Sofia: M. Gisdol, 4-1-4-1 · Monaco: F. Kasmirski, 4-4-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT CSKA Sofia +0.50 at 1.76, and on the half-time score, 0-2 it lost.

The estimate's most likely result was a Monaco win at 63%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 0-2 (11%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.9 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 56%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 52%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

CSKA Sofia had 5 shots on target, Monaco 4.

CSKA Sofia had 50% of the ball, but Monaco took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

CSKA Sofia came into it with 1 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.24 expected goals for and – against, and had won 0% of their matches.

Monaco came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.61 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: the match in numbers

CSKA SofiaMatch statisticsMonaco
50%Ball possession50%
20Total shots10
5Shots on target4
1Big chances4
428Total passes452
82%Pass accuracy87%
12Corners1
13Fouls12
1Offsides2
18Tackles21
2Saves4
3Yellow cards1

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Paris Brunner (Monaco), rated 8.1 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

CSKA Sofia

Monaco

The lowest-rated starter was Pastor at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about CSKA Sofia vs Monaco

What was the score in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?

CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco (half-time 0-2), Europa Conference League, Thursday 15 October 2026.

Who scored in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?

Paris Brunner 3', Ansu Fati 43', Joël Zwarts 76'.

Did Moneyball predict CSKA Sofia vs Monaco correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT CSKA Sofia +0.50 at 1.76, and on the half-time score, 0-2 it lost.

Who was man of the match in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?

Paris Brunner, rated 8.1 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?

J. Ferreira Gonçalves.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.