CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Europa Conference League Matchday 1 · Thursday 15 October 2026 · Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia · referee J. Ferreira Gonçalves · full time
Full time: CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco
Monaco won 2-1 away at CSKA Sofia in Europa Conference League Matchday 1 on Thursday 15 October 2026. The goals: Paris Brunner 3', Ansu Fati 43', Joël Zwarts 76'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Monaco won it
Monaco struck first through Paris Brunner in the 3rd minute, set up by Stanis Idumbo. Ansu Fati made it 0-2 to Monaco in the 43rd minute, set up by Paris Brunner. Joël Zwarts made it 1-2 to CSKA Sofia in the 76th minute, set up by Stefano Sensi.
It was 0-2 at half-time.
The referee, J. Ferreira Gonçalves, showed 4 yellow cards: 3 to CSKA Sofia and 1 to Monaco.
CSKA Sofia: M. Gisdol, 4-1-4-1 · Monaco: F. Kasmirski, 4-4-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT CSKA Sofia +0.50 at 1.76, and on the half-time score, 0-2 it lost.
The estimate's most likely result was a Monaco win at 63%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 0-2 (11%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.9 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 56%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 52%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
CSKA Sofia had 5 shots on target, Monaco 4.
CSKA Sofia had 50% of the ball, but Monaco took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
CSKA Sofia came into it with 1 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.24 expected goals for and – against, and had won 0% of their matches.
Monaco came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.61 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: the match in numbers
| CSKA Sofia | Match statistics | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Ball possession | 50% |
| 20 | Total shots | 10 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 1 | Big chances | 4 |
| 428 | Total passes | 452 |
| 82% | Pass accuracy | 87% |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 18 | Tackles | 21 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Paris Brunner (Monaco), rated 8.1 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.
CSKA Sofia
- Stefano Sensi 7.5 1 assist
- Bruno Jordão 7.3
- Joël Zwarts 7.1 1 goal
- Ángelo Martino 6.9
- Maks Ebong 6.8
Monaco
- Paris Brunner 8.1 1 goal, 1 assist
- Lukas Hradecky 7.5
- Ansu Fati 7.4 1 goal
- Sadibou Sané 7.4
- Christian Mawissa 7.3
The lowest-rated starter was Pastor at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- CSKA Sofia: Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia Thursday 22 October 2026 · Europa Conference League
- Monaco: Lorient vs Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026 · Ligue 1
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
What was the score in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?
CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco (half-time 0-2), Europa Conference League, Thursday 15 October 2026.
Who scored in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?
Paris Brunner 3', Ansu Fati 43', Joël Zwarts 76'.
Did Moneyball predict CSKA Sofia vs Monaco correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT CSKA Sofia +0.50 at 1.76, and on the half-time score, 0-2 it lost.
Who was man of the match in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?
Paris Brunner, rated 8.1 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?
J. Ferreira Gonçalves.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.