Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Bundesliga · Friday 30 October 2026 · 19:30 UTC · URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg · updated 2026-10-17
Elversberg welcome FSV Mainz 05 to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg in Bundesliga Gameweek 8 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Elversberg have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. FSV Mainz 05 have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 3.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Elversberg 39%, the draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Elversberg 1.94, FSV Mainz 05 1.93.
- Over 2.5 goals: 74% · both teams to score: 74%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Elversberg: form and key numbers
In style Elversberg are happy without the ball, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 44.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
FSV Mainz 05: form and key numbers
In style FSV Mainz 05 press high, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.14 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 17.7 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: season averages side by side
| Elversberg | Per match this season | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.14 |
| 1.99 | xG conceded | 1.66 |
| 11.2 | Shots | 17.7 |
| 4.7 | On target | 6.0 |
| 44.3 | Possession % | 50.8 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.94 |
Players to watch
Elversberg
- Nicolas Kristof GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 65 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Maximilian Rohr CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
FSV Mainz 05
- Sheraldo Becker LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 6% of his position)
- Anthony Caci RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Gets into scoring positions, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz, 29 · FSV Mainz 05 · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 73
Phillip Tietz, 29, plays as a centre-forward for FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 5.67 / 90 | 99% |
| Duels won | 7.67 / 90 | 91% |
| Shots | 4.00 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals | 0.83 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner, High shot volume.
- What Phillip Tietz is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Phillip Tietz's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
FSV Mainz 05 should have more of the ball, with Elversberg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals - 1.94 for Elversberg and 1.93 for FSV Mainz 05 - with over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 74%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Elversberg 1-1 FSV Mainz 05
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 74% by the model, 3.87 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
- Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Saturday 24 October 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin Saturday 24 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Saturday 24 October 2026
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 24 October 2026
- TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Sunday 25 October 2026
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: questions and answers
When is Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 8.
Where is Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
At URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg, Elversberg's home ground.
Who will win Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
It is close: Elversberg 39%, draw 22%, FSV Mainz 05 39%. Our prediction is Elversberg 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who is the player to watch in Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Phillip Tietz of FSV Mainz 05: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.