England vs Spain: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League A · Sunday 27 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
England host Spain in the UEFA Nations League A on Sunday 27 September 2026. The prices see little between them: England 33%, the draw 28%, Spain 38% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is England 0 at 1.97, Spain at 1.71. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.83, under 1.84, which gives over 50%.
Form in numbers
- Spain create more: 2.82 expected goals a match against 2.37 for England.
- Spain give away less, 0.44 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: England 13.3 (– on target), Spain 14.1 (– on target).
| England | Per match | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| 2.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.82 |
| 0.78 | xG conceded | 0.44 |
| 2.39 | Goals | 2.34 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 14.1 |
| 13.9 | Tackles | 14.6 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 0.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 40 and 36 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.