Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica Prediction and Stats
Liga Portugal · Monday 9 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Estrela da Amadora welcome Benfica in Liga Portugal action on Monday 9 November 2026.
Estrela da Amadora have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Benfica have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 82% of them. Away from home they average 3.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 56% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Benfica are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 15% and Estrela da Amadora at 10%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3.5 goals: 49%.
Benfica: form and key numbers
In style Benfica keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.14 a match created, 0.87 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.4).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 6.1 on target.
- Possession: 63.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 45% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica: season averages side by side
| Estrela da Amadora | Per match | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| – | Expected goals (xG) | 2.14 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.87 |
| – | Goals | 2.73 |
| – | Shots | 18.3 |
| – | Shots on target | 6.1 |
| – | Big chances missed | 1.7 |
| – | Pressure share % | 78.0 |
| – | Tackles | 15.6 |
| – | Fouls | 12.1 |
| – | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Benfica
- Gianluca Prestianni RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 75 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Vangelis Pavlidis CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 68 · Takes high-quality shots, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 2% of his position)
Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.10 for Estrela da Amadora and 1.94 for Benfica - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 58%. Benfica have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Estrela da Amadora 1-2 Benfica
Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica: what the numbers say
- 1. Benfica win, the likeliest result 75% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 3 or more goals 59% by the model, 3.04 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica: questions and answers
When is Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica?
Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica is on Monday 9 November 2026, in Liga Portugal.
Who will win Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica?
Benfica are the favourites: Estrela da Amadora 10%, draw 15%, Benfica 75%. Our prediction is Estrela da Amadora 1-2 Benfica.
How many goals will there be in Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.