Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles Prediction and Stats
Eredivisie · Sunday 8 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Excelsior welcome Go Ahead Eagles to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam in Eredivisie action on Sunday 8 November 2026.
Excelsior have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 3.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 33% win rate. Go Ahead Eagles have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 7 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, there is little to separate them: Excelsior 35%, the draw 27%, Go Ahead Eagles 38%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3 goals: 48%.
Excelsior: form and key numbers
In style Excelsior are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.92 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 10.1 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 42.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Go Ahead Eagles: form and key numbers
In style Go Ahead Eagles keep the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.61 a match created, 1.68 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.7).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles: season averages side by side
| Excelsior | Per match | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.61 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | 1.68 |
| 1.33 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 10.1 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 39.1 | Pressure share % | 48.1 |
| 14.4 | Tackles | 11.1 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 7.8 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 12 and 12 measured matches.
Players to watch
Excelsior
- Casper Widell CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 31 · Dominant in the air, Blocks shots (top 18% of his position)
- Irakli Yegoian AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 24 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 35% of his position)
Go Ahead Eagles
- Melle Meulensteen CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 37 · Press-resistant, Dribbler (top 15% of his position)
- Thibo Baeten LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 36 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson, 25 · Go Ahead Eagles · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 43
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Go Ahead Eagles in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 43
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.43 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected goals | 0.67 / 90 | 66% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 65% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.64 / 90 | 63% |
| Shots | 4.03 / 90 | 54% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air.
- What Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
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Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles prediction
Go Ahead Eagles should have more of the ball, with Excelsior likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Excelsior are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Go Ahead Eagles work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.60 for Excelsior and 1.82 for Go Ahead Eagles - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 67%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Excelsior 1-1 Go Ahead Eagles
Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
- 2. 3 or more goals 66% by the model, 3.41 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles: questions and answers
When is Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles is on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Eredivisie.
Where is Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles played?
At Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam, Excelsior's home ground.
Who will win Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?
It is close: Excelsior 35%, draw 27%, Go Ahead Eagles 38%. Our prediction is Excelsior 1-1 Go Ahead Eagles.
Who is the player to watch in Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson of Go Ahead Eagles: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 43 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.