FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne · updated 2026-10-17
FC Köln welcome Schalke 04 to RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne in Bundesliga Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
FC Köln have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Schalke 04 have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Köln are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 25% and Schalke 04 at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Köln 1.69, Schalke 04 1.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Köln: form and key numbers
In style FC Köln are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Schalke 04: form and key numbers
In style Schalke 04 are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.08 a match created, 2.08 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.5).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 39.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
FC Köln vs Schalke 04: season averages side by side
| FC Köln | Per match this season | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.08 |
| 1.89 | xG conceded | 2.08 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 10.2 |
| 5.0 | On target | 3.5 |
| 48.3 | Possession % | 39.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
FC Köln
- Marvin Schwäbe GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 59 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 5% of his position)
- Ellyes Skhiri DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 8% of his position)
Schalke 04
- Loris Karius GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 2% of his position)
- Nikola Katic CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, 20 · FC Köln · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, 20, plays as a centre-back for FC Köln in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in dribbled past and fouls committed. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 64
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 98% |
| Fouls committed | 0.50 / 90 | 84% |
| Duels won | 5.67 / 90 | 81% |
| Clearances | 6.67 / 90 | 81% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.00 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Disciplined, Duel winner.
- What Jahmai Simpson-Pusey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jahmai Simpson-Pusey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Köln vs Schalke 04 prediction
FC Köln should have more of the ball, with Schalke 04 likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.69 for FC Köln and 1.15 for Schalke 04 - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 56%. FC Köln have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Köln 2-1 Schalke 04
FC Köln vs Schalke 04 betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Köln win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.84 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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FC Köln vs Schalke 04: questions and answers
When is FC Köln vs Schalke 04?
FC Köln vs Schalke 04 is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 7.
Where is FC Köln vs Schalke 04 played?
At RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, FC Köln's home ground.
Who will win FC Köln vs Schalke 04?
FC Köln are the favourites: FC Köln 49%, draw 25%, Schalke 04 25%. Our prediction is FC Köln 2-1 Schalke 04.
Who is the player to watch in FC Köln vs Schalke 04?
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey of FC Köln: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Köln vs Schalke 04?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.