FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 2
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · MCH Arena, Herning · updated 2026-10-17
FC Midtjylland welcome Sint-Truiden to MCH Arena in Herning in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
FC Midtjylland have played 5 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Sint-Truiden have played 2 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Midtjylland are clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 20% and Sint-Truiden at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 2.25, Sint-Truiden 1.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Midtjylland: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.77 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 7.2 on target.
- Possession: 58.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Sint-Truiden: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.99 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden: season averages side by side
| FC Midtjylland | Per match this season | Sint-Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 2 |
| 2.4 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.99 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 7.2 | On target | 4.0 |
| 58.0 | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.4 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.76 |
FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.25 for FC Midtjylland and 1.03 for Sint-Truiden - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 58%. FC Midtjylland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Midtjylland 2-1 Sint-Truiden
FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Midtjylland to win 64% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.29 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden: questions and answers
When is FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden?
FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2.
Where is FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden played?
At MCH Arena, Herning, FC Midtjylland's home ground.
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden?
FC Midtjylland are the favourites: FC Midtjylland 64%, draw 20%, Sint-Truiden 16%. Our prediction is FC Midtjylland 2-1 Sint-Truiden.
How many goals will there be in FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.