Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, İstanbul · updated 2026-10-21
Fenerbahçe welcome Liverpool to Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium in İstanbul in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Fenerbahçe have played 9 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Liverpool have played 3 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 4.0 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 6.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fenerbahçe are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 23% and Liverpool at 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 1.94, Liverpool 1.77.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 72%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Fenerbahçe: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.9).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 54.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Liverpool: form and key numbers
In style Liverpool keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.17 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.5).
- Shots: 20.7 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.3 a match.
- Discipline: 0.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: season averages side by side
| Fenerbahçe | Per match this season | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 4.0 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.17 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 20.7 |
| 5.4 | On target | 7.0 |
| 54.7 | Possession % | 54.0 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 8.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 0.3 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 7.07 |
Players to watch
Liverpool
- Jérémy Jacquet CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
- Virgil van Dijk CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Hard to dribble past, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak, 27 · Liverpool · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64
Alexander Isak, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Liverpool in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and goals. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 92% |
| Goals | 0.91 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.70 / 90 | 87% |
| Shots | 3.10 / 90 | 71% |
| Shots on target | 47% | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Clinical finisher, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Alexander Isak is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alexander Isak's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.94 for Fenerbahçe and 1.77 for Liverpool - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 72%. Fenerbahçe have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Fenerbahçe 2-1 Liverpool
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool betting tips
- Tip 1: Fenerbahçe win or draw (double chance) 65% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 72% by the model, 3.71 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 72% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Manchester United vs Roma Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Feyenoord vs Inter Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 3 November 2026
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: questions and answers
When is Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool played?
At Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, İstanbul, Fenerbahçe's home ground.
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
Fenerbahçe are the favourites: Fenerbahçe 42%, draw 23%, Liverpool 35%. Our prediction is Fenerbahçe 2-1 Liverpool.
Who is the player to watch in Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
Alexander Isak of Liverpool: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.