Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, İstanbul · updated 2026-10-17
Fenerbahçe welcome Slavia Praha to Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium in İstanbul in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Fenerbahçe have played 8 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Slavia Praha have played 2 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fenerbahçe are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 23% and Slavia Praha at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 1.94, Slavia Praha 1.24.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Fenerbahçe: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created (goals minus xG: -4.9).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Slavia Praha: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.14 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 17.5 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha: season averages side by side
| Fenerbahçe | Per match this season | Slavia Praha |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 2 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 1.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.14 |
| 13.9 | Shots | 17.5 |
| 5.6 | On target | 6.5 |
| 55.4 | Possession % | 46.0 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.94 for Fenerbahçe and 1.24 for Slavia Praha - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 61%. Fenerbahçe have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Fenerbahçe 2-1 Slavia Praha
Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha betting tips
- Tip 1: Fenerbahçe win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.18 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha: questions and answers
When is Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha?
Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha played?
At Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, İstanbul, Fenerbahçe's home ground.
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha?
Fenerbahçe are the favourites: Fenerbahçe 53%, draw 23%, Slavia Praha 24%. Our prediction is Fenerbahçe 2-1 Slavia Praha.
How many goals will there be in Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.