FSV Mainz 05 1-2 FC Bayern München: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 9 · Saturday 7 November 2026 · Mewa Arena, Mainz · referee R. Schröder · full time
Full time: FSV Mainz 05 1-2 FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München beat FSV Mainz 05 2-1 in Bundesliga Matchday 9 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Mewa Arena. The goals: Joshua Kimmich 14', Lennart Karl 57', Phillip Tietz 90+2'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How FC Bayern München won it
FC Bayern München struck first through Joshua Kimmich in the 14th minute, set up by Harry Kane. Lennart Karl made it 0-2 to FC Bayern München in the 57th minute, set up by Harry Kane. Phillip Tietz made it 1-2 to FSV Mainz 05 in the 90th minute (+2), set up by Benedict Hollerbach.
It was 0-1 at half-time.
The referee, R. Schröder, showed 1 yellow card: 0 to FSV Mainz 05 and 1 to FC Bayern München.
FSV Mainz 05: U. Fischer, 3-5-2 · FC Bayern München: A. Danks, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Bayern Munich -1.75, and on 1-2 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a FC Bayern München win at 72%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-2 (8%), exactly the final score.
On goals the estimate was close: about 4.2 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 76%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 67%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a FC Bayern München win at 75%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.82 for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.67 for FC Bayern München.
FSV Mainz 05 scored about 1.8 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
FC Bayern München made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.3 goals.
FSV Mainz 05 created the better chances, 2.82 xG to 0.67, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected FC Bayern München to create more, and FSV Mainz 05 did.
FSV Mainz 05 had 1 shot on target, FC Bayern München 9.
FSV Mainz 05's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
FC Bayern München had 69% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
FSV Mainz 05 came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.89 expected goals for and 1.75 against, and had won 33% of their matches.
FC Bayern München came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 3.03 expected goals for and 0.88 against, and had won 67% of their matches.
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München: the match in numbers
| FSV Mainz 05 | Match statistics | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 31% | Ball possession | 69% |
| 2.82 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.67 |
| 10 | Total shots | 26 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 1 | Big chances | 4 |
| 321 | Total passes | 719 |
| 73% | Pass accuracy | 91% |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 32 | Tackles | 25 |
| 6 | Saves | 0 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Harry Kane (FC Bayern München), rated 8.8 by Sportmonks, with 2 assists.
FSV Mainz 05
- Robin Zentner 8.1
- Fabio Gruber 7.5
- Phillip Tietz 7.3 1 goal
- Anthony Caci 7.2
- Kacper Potulski 7.1
FC Bayern München
- Harry Kane 8.8 2 assists
- Joshua Kimmich 8.5 1 goal
- Dayot Upamecano 7.8
- Lennart Karl 7.6 1 goal
- Michael Olise 7.4
The lowest-rated starter was Jae-sung Lee at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- FSV Mainz 05: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026 · Bundesliga
- FC Bayern München: FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Friday 20 November 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München
What was the score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München?
FSV Mainz 05 1-2 FC Bayern München (half-time 0-1), Bundesliga, Saturday 7 November 2026.
Who scored in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München?
Joshua Kimmich 14', Lennart Karl 57', Phillip Tietz 90+2'.
Did Moneyball predict FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Bayern Munich -1.75, and on 1-2 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München?
Harry Kane, rated 8.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München?
R. Schröder.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.