Georgia vs Northern Ireland Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League B · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Georgia welcome Northern Ireland in UEFA Nations League B action on Friday 25 September 2026.
Georgia have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Northern Ireland have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Georgia are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 27% and Northern Ireland at 24%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Georgia -0.5 at 1.78, Northern Ireland at 1.92. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.69, under 1.97, which gives over 54%.
Georgia vs Northern Ireland: season averages side by side
| Georgia | Per match | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| 1.68 | xG conceded | 1.48 |
| 1.91 | Goals | 0.86 |
| 10.7 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 13.1 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 9.9 | Fouls | 8.0 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 0.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 24 and 8 measured matches.
Georgia vs Northern Ireland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Georgia and 1.23 for Northern Ireland - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Georgia have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Georgia 1-0 Northern Ireland
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Georgia vs Northern Ireland betting tips
- Tip 1: Georgia win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Georgia vs Northern Ireland: questions and answers
When is Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
Georgia vs Northern Ireland is on Friday 25 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
Georgia are the favourites: Georgia 49%, draw 27%, Northern Ireland 24%. Our prediction is Georgia 1-0 Northern Ireland.
How many goals will there be in Georgia vs Northern Ireland?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.