Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 9
Bundesliga · Friday 6 November 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg · updated 2026-10-23
Hamburger SV welcome Borussia Mönchengladbach to Volksparkstadion in Hamburg in Bundesliga Gameweek 9 action on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Hamburger SV have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 3.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 3.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Hamburger SV are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 22% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Hamburger SV 2.01, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.64.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 70%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Hamburger SV: form and key numbers
In style Hamburger SV are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.96 a match created, 2.00 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 39.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Borussia Mönchengladbach: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Mönchengladbach play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created, 2.67 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: season averages side by side
| Hamburger SV | Per match this season | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 3.3 |
| 0.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 |
| 2.00 | xG conceded | 2.67 |
| 11.2 | Shots | 15.2 |
| 3.7 | On target | 4.5 |
| 39.5 | Possession % | 48.3 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.65 | Average rating | 6.59 |
Players to watch
Hamburger SV
- Fábio Vieira AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 48 · Draws fouls, High shot volume (top 5% of his position)
- Jordan Torunarigha CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 47 · Box defender, Blocks shots (top 15% of his position)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Kevin Diks CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 49 · Dominant in the air, Hard to dribble past (top 17% of his position)
- Moritz Nicolas GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 49 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sebastiaan Bornauw
Sebastiaan Bornauw, 27 · Hamburger SV · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 50
Sebastiaan Bornauw, 27, plays as a centre-back for Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in blocked shots and clearances. Weakest in long balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 50
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Blocked shots | 1.50 / 90 | 89% |
| Clearances | 7.75 / 90 | 86% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.50 / 90 | 85% |
| Interceptions | 2.00 / 90 | 85% |
| Duels won | 4.50 / 90 | 54% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Blocks shots, Box defender, Dominant in the air.
- What Sebastiaan Bornauw is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sebastiaan Bornauw's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction
Borussia Mönchengladbach should have more of the ball, with Hamburger SV likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Borussia Mönchengladbach are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.01 for Hamburger SV and 1.64 for Borussia Mönchengladbach - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 70%. Hamburger SV have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Hamburger SV 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach betting tips
- Tip 1: Hamburger SV win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 71% by the model, 3.65 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
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- Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Saturday 31 October 2026
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Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: questions and answers
When is Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 9.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach played?
At Volksparkstadion, Hamburg, Hamburger SV's home ground.
Who will win Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Hamburger SV are the favourites: Hamburger SV 46%, draw 22%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 31%. Our prediction is Hamburger SV 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who is the player to watch in Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Sebastiaan Bornauw of Hamburger SV: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.