Inter Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Sunday 25 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Inter Milan welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026.
Inter Milan have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 86% of them. At home they average 3.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate. Fiorentina have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Inter Milan are clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 19% and Fiorentina at 14%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Inter Milan -1.5 at 2.05, Fiorentina at 1.85. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.97, under 1.92, which gives over 49%.
Inter Milan: form and key numbers
In style Inter Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.81 a match created, 1.10 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 21.7 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 62.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.64 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.8).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 46.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina: season averages side by side
| Inter Milan | Per match | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2.81 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.64 |
| 1.10 | xG conceded | 1.44 |
| 3.00 | Goals | 1.17 |
| 21.7 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 7.3 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 3.7 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 79.5 | Pressure share % | 54.7 |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 15.0 |
| 8.1 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 6 measured matches.
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Inter Milan have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Inter Milan 6, Fiorentina 5 - 2.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Fiorentina 1-1 Inter Milan (March 22nd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Inter Milan won 2, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Fiorentina | 1 – 1 | Inter Milan |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Inter Milan | 3 – 0 | Fiorentina |
| 10 Feb 2025 | Inter Milan | 2 – 1 | Fiorentina |
| 6 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina | 3 – 0 | Inter Milan |
Players to watch
Inter Milan
- Manuel Akanji CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- Lautaro Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
Fiorentina
- Franco Mastantuono RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
- Alieu Njie WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 65 · Chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram, 29 · Inter · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 73
Marcus Thuram, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.63 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected goals | 0.74 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals | 0.98 / 90 | 85% |
| Duels won | 6.34 / 90 | 80% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.93 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.
- What Marcus Thuram is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Thuram's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina prediction
Inter Milan should have more of the ball, with Fiorentina likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Inter Milan work the ball wide and cross; Fiorentina like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals - 3.10 for Inter Milan and 1.15 for Fiorentina - with over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams scoring at 66%. Inter Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter Milan 3-1 Fiorentina
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter Milan to win 67% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 80% by the model, 4.25 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Inter Milan vs Fiorentina in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Serie A previews
- Udinese vs Lecce Sunday 18 October 2026
- Fiorentina vs Como Sunday 18 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Sunday 18 October 2026
- Juventus vs Lazio Sunday 18 October 2026
- Monza vs Cagliari Monday 19 October 2026
- Parma Calcio vs Torino Monday 19 October 2026
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina: questions and answers
When is Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
Inter Milan vs Fiorentina is on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Inter Milan vs Fiorentina played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Inter Milan's home ground.
Who will win Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
Inter Milan are the favourites: Inter Milan 67%, draw 19%, Fiorentina 14%. Our prediction is Inter Milan 3-1 Fiorentina.
Who is the player to watch in Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
Marcus Thuram of Inter: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter Milan vs Fiorentina?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 80%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.