Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Inter Milan welcome Shakhtar Donetsk to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026.
Inter Milan have played 7 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 86% of them. At home they average 3.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate. Shakhtar Donetsk have played 2 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Inter Milan are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 15% and Shakhtar Donetsk at 10%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.6% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Inter Milan -2 at 1.95, Shakhtar Donetsk at 1.95. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Inter Milan: form and key numbers
In style Inter Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.81 a match created, 1.10 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 21.7 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 62.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Shakhtar Donetsk: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.92 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk: season averages side by side
| Inter Milan | Per match | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| 2.81 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.92 |
| 1.10 | xG conceded | – |
| 3.00 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 21.7 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 7.3 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 3.7 | Big chances missed | 0.5 |
| 79.5 | Pressure share % | – |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 20.0 |
| 8.1 | Fouls | 15.5 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 3.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 2 measured matches.
Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Inter Milan have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 0 of the last 7 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Inter Milan 10, Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 1.6 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Inter Milan 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk (November 24th 2021).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Inter Milan won 2, drew 4 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov 2021 | Inter Milan | 2 – 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 28 Sep 2021 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0 – 0 | Inter Milan |
| 9 Dec 2020 | Inter Milan | 0 – 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 27 Oct 2020 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0 – 0 | Inter Milan |
| 17 Aug 2020 | Inter Milan | 5 – 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 24 Aug 2005 | Inter Milan | 1 – 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
Players to watch
Inter Milan
- Manuel Akanji CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- Lautaro Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram, 29 · Inter · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 73
Marcus Thuram, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.63 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected goals | 0.74 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals | 0.98 / 90 | 85% |
| Duels won | 6.34 / 90 | 80% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.93 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.
- What Marcus Thuram is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Thuram's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.35 for Inter Milan and 1.17 for Shakhtar Donetsk - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 63%. Inter Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter Milan 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter Milan to win 75% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.52 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk: questions and answers
When is Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Inter Milan's home ground.
Who will win Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Inter Milan are the favourites: Inter Milan 75%, draw 15%, Shakhtar Donetsk 10%. Our prediction is Inter Milan 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who is the player to watch in Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Marcus Thuram of Inter: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.