Italy vs Belgium Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League A · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Italy welcome Belgium in UEFA Nations League A action on Saturday 26 September 2026.
Italy have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Belgium have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Italy 42%, the draw 28%, Belgium 30%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Italy -0.25 at 1.79, Belgium at 1.89. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.74, under 1.93, which gives over 53%.
Italy vs Belgium: season averages side by side
| Italy | Per match | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| 2.94 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.37 |
| 1.39 | xG conceded | 1.03 |
| 2.13 | Goals | 2.89 |
| 20.0 | Shots | 15.0 |
| 13.0 | Tackles | 13.3 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 10.9 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 40 measured matches.
Italy vs Belgium prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Italy and 1.23 for Belgium - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Italy 1-1 Belgium
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Italy vs Belgium betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 42%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Italy vs Belgium: questions and answers
When is Italy vs Belgium?
Italy vs Belgium is on Saturday 26 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Italy vs Belgium?
It is close: Italy 42%, draw 28%, Belgium 30%. Our prediction is Italy 1-1 Belgium.
How many goals will there be in Italy vs Belgium?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.