Italy vs Belgium: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League A · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Italy host Belgium in the UEFA Nations League A on Saturday 26 September 2026. The prices see little between them: Italy 42%, the draw 28%, Belgium 30% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Italy -0.25 at 1.79, Belgium at 1.89. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.74, under 1.93, which gives over 53%.
Form in numbers
- Italy create more: 2.94 expected goals a match against 2.37 for Belgium.
- Belgium give away less, 1.03 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Italy 20.0 (– on target), Belgium 15.0 (– on target).
| Italy | Per match | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| 2.94 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.37 |
| 1.39 | xG conceded | 1.03 |
| 2.13 | Goals | 2.89 |
| 20.0 | Shots | 15.0 |
| 13.0 | Tackles | 13.3 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 10.9 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 40 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.