Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Jagiellonia Bialystok welcome Anderlecht to Stadion Miejski in Białystok in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026.
Jagiellonia Bialystok have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Anderlecht have played 8 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 63% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Jagiellonia Bialystok 33%, the draw 28%, Anderlecht 40%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Jagiellonia Bialystok +0.25 at 1.83, Anderlecht at 2.05. The main goals line is 2.75: over 2.01, under 1.85, which gives over 48%.
Jagiellonia Bialystok: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.58 a match created (goals minus xG: +9.5).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 43.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.61.
Anderlecht: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.0).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht: season averages side by side
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Per match | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| 0.58 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.00 |
| 2.17 | Goals | 1.88 |
| 10.8 | Shots | 11.4 |
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 0.2 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 8.3 | Tackles | 7.0 |
| 16.5 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 8 measured matches.
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.15 for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.08 for Anderlecht - with over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams scoring at 46%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Anderlecht
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 2.24 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 6.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht: questions and answers
When is Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht?
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht is on Thursday 22 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht played?
At Stadion Miejski, Białystok, Jagiellonia Bialystok's home ground.
Who will win Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht?
It is close: Jagiellonia Bialystok 33%, draw 28%, Anderlecht 40%. Our prediction is Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Anderlecht.
How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 39%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.