Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League B · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Kosovo welcome Republic of Ireland in UEFA Nations League B action on Friday 25 September 2026.
Kosovo have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Republic of Ireland have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Kosovo 38%, the draw 30%, Republic of Ireland 32%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Kosovo 0 at 1.66, Republic of Ireland at 2.02. The main goals line is 2: over 1.71, under 1.95, which gives over 53%.
Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland: season averages side by side
| Kosovo | Per match | Republic of Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.84 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 1.67 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.82 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 13.0 | Tackles | 11.3 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 12 and 14 measured matches.
Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Kosovo and 1.23 for Republic of Ireland - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Kosovo 1-1 Republic of Ireland
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland: questions and answers
When is Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland?
Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland is on Friday 25 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland?
It is close: Kosovo 38%, draw 30%, Republic of Ireland 32%. Our prediction is Kosovo 1-1 Republic of Ireland.
How many goals will there be in Kosovo vs Republic of Ireland?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.