Moneyball OddsDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball Odds

KuPS 2-4 Trabzonspor: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: KuPS 2-4 Trabzonspor

Trabzonspor beat KuPS 4-2 in Europa Conference League Matchday 1 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Tammelan Stadion. The goals: Paul Onuachu 3', Mohamed Salah 44', Franculino 47', Petteri Pennanen 54', Franculino 90+1', Gustav Engvall 90+6'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.

How Trabzonspor won it

The opening goal came in the 3rd minute: Paul Onuachu for Trabzonspor, set up by Mohamed Salah. Mohamed Salah made it 0-2 to Trabzonspor in the 44th minute. Franculino made it 0-3 to Trabzonspor in the 47th minute. Petteri Pennanen made it 1-3 to KuPS in the 54th minute. Franculino made it 1-4 to Trabzonspor in the 90th minute (+1), set up by Ernest Muci. Gustav Engvall made it 2-4 to KuPS in the 90th minute (+6).

It was 0-2 at half-time.

Franculino scored twice.

The referee, I. Barbara, showed 5 yellow cards: 3 to KuPS and 2 to Trabzonspor. Piotr Parzyszek missed a penalty for KuPS in the 59 minute.

KuPS: M. Nuutinen, 4-2-3-1 · Trabzonspor: T. Reis, 4-3-3.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT KuPS +0.50 at 1.83, and on the half-time score, 0-2 it lost.

The estimate's most likely result was a Trabzonspor win at 64%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 0-2 (11%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.9 goals and there were 6.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 55%; with 6 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 51%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

KuPS had 8 shots on target, Trabzonspor 8.

Trabzonspor's goalkeeper made 6 saves.

Trabzonspor had 54% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

KuPS came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.00 expected goals for and – against, and had won 33% of their matches.

Trabzonspor came into it with 1 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 4.0 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 3.26 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.

KuPS vs Trabzonspor: the match in numbers

KuPSMatch statisticsTrabzonspor
46%Ball possession54%
16Total shots22
8Shots on target8
5Big chances6
368Total passes457
82%Pass accuracy86%
9Corners6
13Fouls12
17Tackles19
4Saves6
3Yellow cards2

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Mohamed Salah (Trabzonspor), rated 8.7 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

KuPS

Trabzonspor

The lowest-rated starter was Piotr Parzyszek at 5.5. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about KuPS vs Trabzonspor

What was the score in KuPS vs Trabzonspor?

KuPS 2-4 Trabzonspor (half-time 0-2), Europa Conference League, Thursday 15 October 2026.

Who scored in KuPS vs Trabzonspor?

Paul Onuachu 3', Mohamed Salah 44', Franculino 47', Petteri Pennanen 54', Franculino 90+1', Gustav Engvall 90+6'.

Did Moneyball predict KuPS vs Trabzonspor correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT KuPS +0.50 at 1.83, and on the half-time score, 0-2 it lost.

Who was man of the match in KuPS vs Trabzonspor?

Mohamed Salah, rated 8.7 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed KuPS vs Trabzonspor?

I. Barbara.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Odds Match Live All match reports

Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.