Lazio vs Cagliari Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 10
Serie A · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Roma · updated 2026-10-18
Lazio welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Lazio have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 83% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate. Cagliari have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lazio are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 27% and Cagliari at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lazio 1.52, Cagliari 0.86.
- Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lazio: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 49.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Cagliari: form and key numbers
In style Cagliari are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.88 a match created, 1.78 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 38.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Lazio vs Cagliari: season averages side by side
| Lazio | Per match this season | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.88 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 1.78 |
| 13.5 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 4.3 | On target | 3.8 |
| 49.7 | Possession % | 38.7 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 17% of his position)
- Reda Belahyane DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Secure passer, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 81 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 8% of his position)
- Juan Rodríguez CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni, 31 · Lazio · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61
Mattia Zaccagni, 31, plays as a winger for Lazio in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 61
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 57
- SS · Second striker Competent, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.35 / 90 | 87% |
| Shots | 3.02 / 90 | 81% |
| Big chances created | 0.50 / 90 | 80% |
| Fouls won | 2.01 / 90 | 74% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Mattia Zaccagni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mattia Zaccagni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lazio vs Cagliari prediction
Lazio should have more of the ball, with Cagliari likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.52 for Lazio and 0.86 for Cagliari - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 46%. Lazio have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lazio 1-0 Cagliari
Lazio vs Cagliari betting tips
- Tip 1: Lazio win or draw (double chance) 79% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.38 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Lazio vs Cagliari: questions and answers
When is Lazio vs Cagliari?
Lazio vs Cagliari is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 10.
Where is Lazio vs Cagliari played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, Lazio's home ground.
Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?
Lazio are the favourites: Lazio 52%, draw 27%, Cagliari 21%. Our prediction is Lazio 1-0 Cagliari.
Who is the player to watch in Lazio vs Cagliari?
Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Cagliari?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.