Lazio vs Parma Calcio Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Sunday 25 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Lazio welcome Parma Calcio to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A action on Sunday 25 October 2026.
Lazio have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 83% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate. Parma Calcio have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Lazio are clear favourites at 60%, with the draw at 24% and Parma Calcio at 16%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lazio -1 at 1.96, Parma Calcio at 1.94. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.06, under 1.83, which gives over 47%.
Lazio: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 49.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Parma Calcio: form and key numbers
In style Parma Calcio are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.75 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 8.3 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 42.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio: season averages side by side
| Lazio | Per match | Parma Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.75 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 1.70 |
| 1.83 | Goals | 0.67 |
| 13.5 | Shots | 8.3 |
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 2.7 |
| 1.3 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 54.3 | Pressure share % | 28.2 |
| 14.0 | Tackles | 12.8 |
| 13.2 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Lazio vs Parma Calcio: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lazio have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lazio 5, Parma Calcio 6 - 2.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lazio 1-1 Parma Calcio (April 4th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Lazio won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Lazio | 1 – 1 | Parma Calcio |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Parma Calcio | 0 – 1 | Lazio |
| 28 Apr 2025 | Lazio | 2 – 2 | Parma Calcio |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Parma Calcio | 3 – 1 | Lazio |
Players to watch
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 17% of his position)
- Reda Belahyane DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Secure passer, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
Parma Calcio
- Edoardo Corvi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 21% of his position)
- Mariano Troilo CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 53 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni, 31 · Lazio · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61
Mattia Zaccagni, 31, plays as a winger for Lazio in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 61
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 57
- SS · Second striker Competent, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.35 / 90 | 87% |
| Shots | 3.02 / 90 | 81% |
| Big chances created | 0.50 / 90 | 80% |
| Fouls won | 2.01 / 90 | 74% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Mattia Zaccagni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mattia Zaccagni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lazio vs Parma Calcio prediction
Lazio should have more of the ball, with Parma Calcio likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Parma Calcio go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.91 for Lazio and 0.76 for Parma Calcio - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 46%. Lazio have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lazio 2-0 Parma Calcio
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lazio vs Parma Calcio betting tips
- Tip 1: Lazio to win 60% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.67 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Lazio vs Parma Calcio in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Lazio vs Parma Calcio: questions and answers
When is Lazio vs Parma Calcio?
Lazio vs Parma Calcio is on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is Lazio vs Parma Calcio played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, Lazio's home ground.
Who will win Lazio vs Parma Calcio?
Lazio are the favourites: Lazio 60%, draw 24%, Parma Calcio 16%. Our prediction is Lazio 2-0 Parma Calcio.
Who is the player to watch in Lazio vs Parma Calcio?
Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Parma Calcio?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
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