Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Ligue 1 Matchday 7 · Friday 16 October 2026 · Stade de La Pincenardière, Mulsanne · referee A. Petit · full time
Full time: Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse
Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse: Toulouse took the points in Ligue 1 Matchday 7 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stade de La Pincenardière. The goals: Jacen Russell-Rowe 46', Aron Dønnum 59', Casper Tengstedt 87'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Toulouse won it
The opening goal came in the 46th minute: Jacen Russell-Rowe for Toulouse, set up by Aron Dønnum. Aron Dønnum made it 0-2 to Toulouse in the 59th minute. Casper Tengstedt made it 0-3 to Toulouse in the 87th minute, set up by Cristian Cásseres Jr..
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, A. Petit, showed 3 yellow cards: 2 to Le Mans and 1 to Toulouse.
Le Mans: P. Videira, 3-1-4-2 · Toulouse: J. Askou, 4-4-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A miss for the model: 47% for a Le Mans win, 30% for a Toulouse win, and football chose the second.
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.6 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 70%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 70%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.68 for Le Mans and 1.36 for Toulouse.
Le Mans scored about 1.7 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Toulouse made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.6 goals.
Le Mans had 1 shot on target, Toulouse 5.
Le Mans had 53% of the ball, but Toulouse took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Le Mans came into it with 7 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.57 expected goals for and 2.04 against, and had won 14% of their matches.
Toulouse came into it with 7 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 1.80 expected goals for and 1.71 against, and had won 29% of their matches.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: the match in numbers
| Le Mans | Match statistics | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| 53% | Ball possession | 47% |
| 1.68 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 11 | Total shots | 13 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 2 | Big chances | 2 |
| 564 | Total passes | 526 |
| 87% | Pass accuracy | 86% |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 11 | Tackles | 13 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Aron Dønnum (Toulouse), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.
Le Mans
- Lucas Bretelle 6.9
- Lucas Calodat 6.8
- Billal Brahimi 6.7
- Djibril Sidibé 6.7
- Louis Mafouta 6.7
Toulouse
- Aron Dønnum 8.5 1 goal, 1 assist
- Cristian Cásseres Jr. 7.9 1 assist
- Casper Tengstedt 7.5 1 goal
- Rafik Messali 7.5
- Jacen Russell-Rowe 7.4 1 goal
The lowest-rated starter was Nicolas Kocik at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Le Mans: Auxerre vs Le Mans Sunday 25 October 2026 · Ligue 1
- Toulouse: Toulouse vs Troyes Saturday 24 October 2026 · Ligue 1
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Le Mans vs Toulouse
What was the score in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse (half-time 0-0), Ligue 1, Friday 16 October 2026.
Who scored in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Jacen Russell-Rowe 46', Aron Dønnum 59', Casper Tengstedt 87'.
Did Moneyball predict Le Mans vs Toulouse correctly?
A miss for the model: 47% for a Le Mans win, 30% for a Toulouse win, and football chose the second.
Who was man of the match in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Aron Dønnum, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Le Mans vs Toulouse?
A. Petit.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.