Lecce vs Genoa Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 10
Serie A · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce · updated 2026-10-18
Lecce welcome Genoa to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce in Serie A Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Lecce have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Genoa have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Lecce 41%, the draw 28%, Genoa 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lecce 1.39, Genoa 1.17.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lecce: form and key numbers
In style Lecce are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 41.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Genoa: form and key numbers
In style Genoa are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.92 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 2.9 on target.
- Possession: 44.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Lecce vs Genoa: season averages side by side
| Lecce | Per match this season | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.92 |
| 1.99 | xG conceded | 1.31 |
| 10.2 | Shots | 11.1 |
| 3.7 | On target | 2.9 |
| 41.7 | Possession % | 44.3 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Lecce
- Danilo Veiga RWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 52 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 10% of his position)
- Wladimiro Falcone GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 51 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
Genoa
- Leo Østigård CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Morten Frendrup DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 56 · Reads the game, Disciplined (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel, 21 · Lecce · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62
Tiago Gabriel, 21, plays as a centre-back for Lecce in Serie A. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and duels won. Weakest in long balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 68
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 94% | 89% |
| Duels won | 6.78 / 90 | 88% |
| Tackles | 2.44 / 90 | 85% |
| Interceptions | 1.90 / 90 | 81% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.98 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Duel winner, Ball-winner.
- What Tiago Gabriel is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tiago Gabriel's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lecce vs Genoa prediction
Genoa should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.39 for Lecce and 1.17 for Genoa - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lecce 1-1 Genoa
Lecce vs Genoa betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.56 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (47%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
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Lecce vs Genoa: questions and answers
When is Lecce vs Genoa?
Lecce vs Genoa is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 10.
Where is Lecce vs Genoa played?
At Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce, Lecce's home ground.
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
It is close: Lecce 41%, draw 28%, Genoa 31%. Our prediction is Lecce 1-1 Genoa.
Who is the player to watch in Lecce vs Genoa?
Tiago Gabriel of Lecce: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Genoa?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.