Lens vs Como Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · updated 2026-10-21
Lens welcome Como to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Lens have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Como have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 75% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lens are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 24% and Como at 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lens 1.74, Como 1.54.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.95 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Como: form and key numbers
In style Como keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.82 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 21.7 a match, 6.9 on target.
- Possession: 61.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.04.
Lens vs Como: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match this season | Como |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.82 |
| 1.70 | xG conceded | 1.57 |
| 14.6 | Shots | 21.7 |
| 6.0 | On target | 6.9 |
| 51.7 | Possession % | 61.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 86% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 6.6 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 7.04 |
Players to watch
Lens
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 10% of his position)
Como
- Luis Milla CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 74 · Reads the game, Creator (top 2% of his position)
- Lucas Da Cunha CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 74 · Press-resistant, Secure passer (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 75
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 75
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 71
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 3.71 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.57 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.19 / 90 | 99% |
| Key passes | 3.71 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.55 / 90 | 95% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Como prediction
Como should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.74 for Lens and 1.54 for Como - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 65%. Lens have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lens 2-1 Como
Lens vs Como betting tips
- Tip 1: Lens win or draw (double chance) 66% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.29 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lens vs Como: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Como?
Lens vs Como is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is Lens vs Como played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Como?
Lens are the favourites: Lens 42%, draw 24%, Como 34%. Our prediction is Lens 2-1 Como.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Como?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Como?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.