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Lens 1–2 Marseille: Result, Report and Stats

This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.

Result: Lens 1 – 2 Marseille

Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.

Lens welcome Marseille to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Ligue 1 action on Monday 9 November 2026.

Lens have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 75% win rate. Marseille have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.

On the pre-match consensus, there is little to separate them: Lens 41%, the draw 27%, Marseille 32%.

Win probabilities

Lens41%home win
Draw27%draw
Marseille32%away win

The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 50%.

Lens: form and key numbers

In style Lens cross a lot.

Marseille: form and key numbers

In style Marseille keep the ball.

Lens vs Marseille: season averages side by side

LensPer matchMarseille
1.59Expected goals (xG)1.66
1.60xG conceded1.97
1.70Goals2.20
12.9Shots13.2
5.4Shots on target4.7
2.2Big chances missed1.6
53.0Pressure share %48.1
16.8Tackles14.6
12.7Fouls11.2
1.8Yellow cards1.5

Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 10 measured matches.

Lens vs Marseille: head-to-head stats and key numbers

Head to head

In their last 5 meetings Lens won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

DateHomeScoreAway
8 Nov 2026Lens1 – 2Marseille
24 Jan 2026Marseille3 – 1Lens
25 Oct 2025Lens2 – 1Marseille
8 Mar 2025Marseille0 – 1Lens
23 Nov 2024Lens1 – 3Marseille

Players to watch

Lens

Marseille

Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin

Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 76

Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Successful dribbles 21Expected goals 94Expected assists 99Key passes 99Shots 91Accurate crosses 100Big chances created 98Fouls won 33Dispossessed 23

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

  • RW · Winger Natural, 76
  • SS · Second striker Accomplished, 73
  • ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 62

Where he is strongest

FigureHis numberBetter than
Accurate crosses2.98 / 90100%
Key passes3.18 / 9099%
Expected assists (est.)0.49 / 9099%
Big chances created1.03 / 9098%
Expected goals0.45 / 9094%

Roles he suits

  • ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
  • ★★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
  • ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder

Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Creator.

In Moneyball Scout
  • What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
  • How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
  • The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
  • His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

Lens vs Marseille prediction

Marseille should have more of the ball, with Lens likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Lens work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.93 for Lens and 1.69 for Marseille - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 70%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.

Prediction: Lens 2-2 Marseille

Lens vs Marseille: what the numbers say

  1. 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
  2. 2. 3 or more goals 70% by the model, 3.63 goals expected
  3. 3. Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
  4. 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
  5. 5. 9 or more corners 10.3 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

Moneyball's reading

The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.

Follow Lens vs Marseille live

Lens vs Marseille: questions and answers

When is Lens vs Marseille?

Lens vs Marseille is on Monday 9 November 2026, in Ligue 1.

Where is Lens vs Marseille played?

At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.

Who will win Lens vs Marseille?

It is close: Lens 41%, draw 27%, Marseille 32%. Our prediction is Lens 2-2 Marseille.

Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Marseille?

Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in Lens vs Marseille?

Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.

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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.