Lens vs Paris FC Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Lens welcome Paris FC to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Ligue 1 action on Sunday 25 October 2026.
Lens have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Paris FC have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Lens are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and Paris FC at 29%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lens -0.25 at 1.84, Paris FC at 2.06. The main goals line is 3: over 2.03, under 1.85, which gives over 48%.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.95 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Paris FC: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 0.83 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Lens vs Paris FC: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 1.70 | xG conceded | 0.83 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.33 |
| 14.6 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 57.8 | Pressure share % | 53.5 |
| 17.1 | Tackles | 18.3 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 6 measured matches.
Lens vs Paris FC: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lens have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lens 7, Paris FC 1 - 4.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Paris FC 0-5 Lens (February 14th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Lens won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Paris FC | 0 – 5 | Lens |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Lens | 2 – 1 | Paris FC |
Players to watch
Lens
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 13% of his position)
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 56 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 10% of his position)
Paris FC
- Lassine Sinayoko CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 69 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 8% of his position)
- Pierre Lees-Melou DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 75
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 75
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 74
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 3.71 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.57 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.19 / 90 | 99% |
| Key passes | 3.71 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.55 / 90 | 96% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Paris FC prediction
Lens should have more of the ball; Lens work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.39 for Lens and 1.42 for Paris FC - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 58%. Lens have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lens 2-1 Paris FC
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lens vs Paris FC betting tips
- Tip 1: Lens win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.81 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Angers vs Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs AS Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris FC vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lyon vs Nice Sunday 18 October 2026
- Brest vs Nice Saturday 24 October 2026
Lens vs Paris FC: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Paris FC?
Lens vs Paris FC is on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Lens vs Paris FC played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?
Lens are the favourites: Lens 45%, draw 26%, Paris FC 29%. Our prediction is Lens 2-1 Paris FC.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Paris FC?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Paris FC?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.