Liechtenstein vs Lithuania Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League D · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Liechtenstein welcome Lithuania in UEFA Nations League D action on Friday 25 September 2026.
Liechtenstein have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Lithuania have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Lithuania are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 20% and Liechtenstein at 11%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (14.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Liechtenstein +1.25 at 1.99, Lithuania at 1.67. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.70, under 1.94, which gives over 53%.
Liechtenstein vs Lithuania: season averages side by side
| Liechtenstein | Per match | Lithuania |
|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.69 |
| 3.04 | xG conceded | 1.84 |
| 0.13 | Goals | 0.75 |
| 10.1 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 17.5 | Tackles | 13.8 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 16.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 24 and 24 measured matches.
Liechtenstein vs Lithuania prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Liechtenstein and 1.23 for Lithuania - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Lithuania have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Liechtenstein 1-2 Lithuania
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Liechtenstein vs Lithuania betting tips
- Tip 1: Lithuania to win 69% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Liechtenstein vs Lithuania: questions and answers
When is Liechtenstein vs Lithuania?
Liechtenstein vs Lithuania is on Friday 25 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League D.
Who will win Liechtenstein vs Lithuania?
Lithuania are the favourites: Liechtenstein 11%, draw 20%, Lithuania 69%. Our prediction is Liechtenstein 1-2 Lithuania.
How many goals will there be in Liechtenstein vs Lithuania?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.