Liechtenstein vs Lithuania: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League D · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
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Liechtenstein host Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League D on Friday 25 September 2026. The bookmakers make Lithuania clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 20% and Liechtenstein at 11%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (14.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Liechtenstein +1.25 at 1.99, Lithuania at 1.67. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.70, under 1.94, which gives over 53%.
Form in numbers
- Lithuania create more: 0.69 expected goals a match against 0.16 for Liechtenstein.
- Lithuania give away less, 1.84 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Liechtenstein 10.1 (– on target), Lithuania 11.0 (– on target).
| Liechtenstein | Per match | Lithuania |
|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.69 |
| 3.04 | xG conceded | 1.84 |
| 0.13 | Goals | 0.75 |
| 10.1 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 17.5 | Tackles | 13.8 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 16.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 24 and 24 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.