Lille vs Brest Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-17
Lille welcome Brest to Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Lille have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Brest have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Lille are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 26% and Brest at 27%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (6.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lille -0.25 at 1.76, Brest at 2.19. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.97, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.19 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.21 a match created, 1.18 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 19.2 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Lille vs Brest: season averages side by side
| Lille | Per match | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| 1.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.21 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.18 |
| 1.50 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 19.2 |
| 5.5 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 1.7 | Big chances missed | 2.7 |
| 42.6 | Pressure share % | 60.8 |
| 15.5 | Tackles | 17.2 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Lille vs Brest: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lille have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lille 7, Brest 7 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lille 1-1 Brest (February 14th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Lille won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Lille | 1 – 1 | Brest |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Brest | 3 – 3 | Lille |
| 10 May 2025 | Brest | 2 – 0 | Lille |
| 6 Dec 2024 | Lille | 3 – 1 | Brest |
Players to watch
Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Berke Özer GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 58 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 48% of his position)
Brest
- Hugo Magnetti CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 67 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 2% of his position)
- Raphaël Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko, 24 · Brest · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 75
Bradley Locko, 24, plays as a full-back for Brest in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and interceptions. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 75
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.00 / 90 | 93% |
| Interceptions | 1.84 / 90 | 90% |
| Duels won | 6.52 / 90 | 87% |
| Dribbled past | 0.33 / 90 | 86% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.00 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Reads the game, Duel winner.
- What Bradley Locko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bradley Locko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lille vs Brest prediction
Brest should have more of the ball; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.46 for Lille and 1.48 for Brest - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 60%. Lille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lille 2-1 Brest
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lille vs Brest betting tips
- Tip 1: Lille win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.93 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- Angers vs Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs AS Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris FC vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
Lille vs Brest: questions and answers
When is Lille vs Brest?
Lille vs Brest is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is Lille vs Brest played?
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq, Lille's home ground.
Who will win Lille vs Brest?
Lille are the favourites: Lille 46%, draw 26%, Brest 27%. Our prediction is Lille 2-1 Brest.
Who is the player to watch in Lille vs Brest?
Bradley Locko of Brest: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Brest?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.