Lille vs Galatasaray Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Lille welcome Galatasaray to Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026.
Lille have played 7 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Galatasaray have played 2 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Lille 41%, the draw 28%, Galatasaray 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lille -0.25 at 1.89, Galatasaray at 2.01. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.83, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 50.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 57% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Galatasaray: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.84 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 7.5 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 1.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.48.
Lille vs Galatasaray: season averages side by side
| Lille | Per match | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| 1.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.84 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 0.98 |
| 1.43 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 7.5 |
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 1.7 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 49.2 | Pressure share % | – |
| 15.9 | Tackles | 14.0 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 2 measured matches.
Players to watch
Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Dilane Bakwa RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 58 · Crosser, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ethan Mbappé
Ethan Mbappé, 19 · LOSC Lille · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65
Ethan Mbappé, 19, plays as a winger for LOSC Lille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and fouls won. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 65
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 61
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 2.56 / 90 | 82% |
| Fouls won | 2.30 / 90 | 76% |
| Expected goals | 0.29 / 90 | 72% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 72% |
| Dispossessed | 0.77 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler.
- What Ethan Mbappé is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ethan Mbappé's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lille vs Galatasaray prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.29 for Lille and 0.97 for Galatasaray - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lille 1-1 Galatasaray
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lille vs Galatasaray betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.27 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 4.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Lille vs Galatasaray in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Lille vs Galatasaray: questions and answers
When is Lille vs Galatasaray?
Lille vs Galatasaray is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Lille vs Galatasaray played?
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq, Lille's home ground.
Who will win Lille vs Galatasaray?
It is close: Lille 41%, draw 28%, Galatasaray 31%. Our prediction is Lille 1-1 Galatasaray.
Who is the player to watch in Lille vs Galatasaray?
Ethan Mbappé of LOSC Lille: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Galatasaray?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.