LOSC Lille 1-0 Le Havre: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Ligue 1 Matchday 6 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq · referee B. Dechepy · full time
Full time: LOSC Lille 1-0 Le Havre
LOSC Lille won 1-0 at home to Le Havre in Ligue 1 Matchday 6 on Saturday 10 October 2026. The goals: Dilane Bakwa 5'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How LOSC Lille won it
Dilane Bakwa put LOSC Lille ahead in the 5th minute, set up by Tanguy Nianzou.
It was 1-0 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.
Ayumu Seko of Le Havre was sent off in the 61st minute. The referee, B. Dechepy, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to LOSC Lille and 2 to Le Havre.
LOSC Lille: Davide Ancelotti, 4-2-3-1 · Le Havre: D. Digard, 4-3-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a LOSC Lille win the most likely outcome at 49%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 1-0.
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.8 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 55%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
The bookmakers, margin removed, had a LOSC Lille win at 65%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.52 for LOSC Lille and 0.77 for Le Havre.
LOSC Lille had 1 shot on target, Le Havre 2.
Le Havre had 53% of the ball, but LOSC Lille took the points.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
LOSC Lille came into it with 6 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 a match, with 1.19 expected goals for and 1.66 against, and had won 67% of their matches.
Le Havre came into it with 6 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.65 expected goals for and 1.58 against, and had won 0% of their matches.
LOSC Lille vs Le Havre: the match in numbers
| LOSC Lille | Match statistics | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Ball possession | 53% |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.77 |
| 5 | Total shots | 17 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 3 | Big chances | 1 |
| 408 | Total passes | 448 |
| 84% | Pass accuracy | 84% |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 21 | Tackles | 23 |
| 2 | Saves | 0 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Alexsandro (LOSC Lille), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
LOSC Lille
- Alexsandro 7.7
- Dilane Bakwa 7.6 1 goal
- Tanguy Nianzou 7.5 1 assist
- Berke Özer 7.1
- Nabil Bentaleb 6.8
Le Havre
- Simon Ebonog 7.6
- Rassoul Ndiaye 7.5
- Mouhamed Lamine Ndiaye 7.2
- Ally Samatta 7.1
- Sota Nakamura 7.0
The lowest-rated starter was Ayumu Seko at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- LOSC Lille: LOSC Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026 · Ligue 1
- Le Havre: Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026 · Ligue 1
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about LOSC Lille vs Le Havre
What was the score in LOSC Lille vs Le Havre?
LOSC Lille 1-0 Le Havre (half-time 1-0), Ligue 1, Saturday 10 October 2026.
Who scored in LOSC Lille vs Le Havre?
Dilane Bakwa 5'.
Did Moneyball predict LOSC Lille vs Le Havre correctly?
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a LOSC Lille win the most likely outcome at 49%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 1-0.
Who was man of the match in LOSC Lille vs Le Havre?
Alexsandro, rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed LOSC Lille vs Le Havre?
B. Dechepy.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.