Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Lillestrom welcome Real Sociedad to Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026.
Lillestrom have played 4 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Real Sociedad have played 8 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Real Sociedad are narrow favourites at 60%, with the draw at 23% and Lillestrom at 17%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lillestrom +1 at 1.96, Real Sociedad at 1.93. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.81, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
Lillestrom: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.78 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Real Sociedad: form and key numbers
In style Real Sociedad play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.17 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad: season averages side by side
| Lillestrom | Per match | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 0.78 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.17 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.50 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| – | Pressure share % | 44.5 |
| 8.8 | Tackles | 17.9 |
| 14.5 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 8 measured matches.
Players to watch
Real Sociedad
- Carlos Soler CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
- Jon Aramburu RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergio Gómez
Sergio Gómez, 26 · Real Sociedad · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 61
Sergio Gómez, 26, plays as a full-back for Real Sociedad in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and pass accuracy. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 61
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.19 / 90 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 85% |
| Passes | 49.43 / 90 | 83% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.79 / 90 | 78% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.12 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Secure passer, Ball circulator.
- What Sergio Gómez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergio Gómez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.53 for Lillestrom and 1.06 for Real Sociedad - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 52%. Real Sociedad have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Lillestrom 0-1 Real Sociedad
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad betting tips
- Tip 1: Real Sociedad to win 60% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.59 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 13.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad: questions and answers
When is Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad is on Thursday 22 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad played?
At Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller, Lillestrom's home ground.
Who will win Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad are the favourites: Lillestrom 17%, draw 23%, Real Sociedad 60%. Our prediction is Lillestrom 0-1 Real Sociedad.
Who is the player to watch in Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
Sergio Gómez of Real Sociedad: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.