Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Europa Point Stadium, Freiburg · updated 2026-10-22
Lincoln Red Imps welcome Hajduk Split to Europa Point Stadium in Freiburg in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Lincoln Red Imps have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Hajduk Split have played 5 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 4.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Hajduk Split are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 27% and Lincoln Red Imps at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lincoln Red Imps 1.24, Hajduk Split 1.50.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lincoln Red Imps: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.27 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.2).
- Shots: 4.0 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.53.
Hajduk Split: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.59 a match created (goals minus xG: +13.1).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split: season averages side by side
| Lincoln Red Imps | Per match this season | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 3.2 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 0.27 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.59 |
| 4.0 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 4.7 | On target | 5.8 |
| 53.0 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.53 | Average rating | 6.62 |
Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.24 for Lincoln Red Imps and 1.50 for Hajduk Split - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%. Hajduk Split have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Lincoln Red Imps 1-2 Hajduk Split
Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split betting tips
- Tip 1: Hajduk Split win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.74 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split: questions and answers
When is Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split?
Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Where is Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split played?
At Europa Point Stadium, Freiburg, Lincoln Red Imps's home ground.
Who will win Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split?
Hajduk Split are the favourites: Lincoln Red Imps 31%, draw 27%, Hajduk Split 42%. Our prediction is Lincoln Red Imps 1-2 Hajduk Split.
How many goals will there be in Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.