Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 9
Premier League · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool · updated 2026-10-18
Liverpool welcome Arsenal to Anfield in Liverpool in Premier League Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Liverpool have played 7 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Arsenal have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 83% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Liverpool 33%, the draw 28%, Arsenal 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Liverpool 1.23, Arsenal 1.35.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Liverpool: form and key numbers
In style Liverpool keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 1.30 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.1).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 0.88 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 59.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: season averages side by side
| Liverpool | Per match this season | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.73 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 1.30 | xG conceded | 0.88 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 13.0 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.0 |
| 55.7 | Possession % | 59.2 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.89 |
Players to watch
Liverpool
- Jérémy Jacquet CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Virgil van Dijk CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Hard to dribble past, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Arsenal
- Declan Rice CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 71 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Ben White RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak, 27 · Liverpool · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 65
Alexander Isak, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Liverpool in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in goals and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 / 90 | 93% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.70 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots | 3.10 / 90 | 70% |
| Shots on target | 47% | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Alexander Isak is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alexander Isak's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
Arsenal should have more of the ball; Liverpool like to take players on; Arsenal are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.23 for Liverpool and 1.35 for Arsenal - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 53%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal
Liverpool vs Arsenal betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.58 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Friday 23 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Saturday 24 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Fulham Saturday 24 October 2026
- Arsenal vs Everton Saturday 24 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 24 October 2026
- Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth Sunday 25 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 25 October 2026
- Hull City vs Brentford Sunday 25 October 2026
Liverpool vs Arsenal: questions and answers
When is Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Liverpool vs Arsenal is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 9.
Where is Liverpool vs Arsenal played?
At Anfield, Liverpool, Liverpool's home ground.
Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?
It is close: Liverpool 33%, draw 28%, Arsenal 39%. Our prediction is Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal.
Who is the player to watch in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Alexander Isak of Liverpool: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.